地震電磁気観測衛星群 Vulkan

V. N. Oraevsky, K. A. Boyarchuk, S. A. Pulinets (IZMIRAN)

数十年間のタイムスケールにおいて、地震被害分析手法の開発は本質的に進歩しました。しかしながら、数日から数年の時間スケールで特定の地震の予測は困難な問題です。衛星と地上設備は、地震の数時間から数日前に電離層の地震前兆現象を検出できるであろうと提案されてきました。

本仮説は現在、統計的研究によるロシア科学アカデミーによって編み出された物理的モデルと、背景となる電離層変動から分離可能な地震-電離圏前兆の主要な形態論の特徴についての理解によって支持されます。今や主要な問題は、定常的な全球データの欠如と、資金的にリスキーな研究と考えられることによる予算の制限です。

低コストの小型衛星はこれらの問題を解決します。2001年、ロシア航空宇宙庁(Rosaviakosmos)は、被害地震の前兆を含む自然災害モニタリングの衛星システムに対する提案を求めました。ロシア科学アカデミー・地磁気電離層電波伝播研究所(IZMIRAN)は、NIIEM(電気力学研究所、Istra、モスクワ)と共に、本契約を勝ち取りました。そして今、「Vulkan」と命名されたプロジェクトは、実装段階にあります。

しかし本プロジェクトの歴史は非常に長いものです。宇宙から測定され地震前兆と思われる現象に関する最初の結果は、既に1960年代に得られました(see Table 1)。

Table 1: The space projects where the earthquake precursors were registered

Alouette - 1964
Cosmos-274 -1969
OGO-6 - 1969
OVI-17 - 1969
ISIS-2 - 1971
АЕ-С -1973
GEOS-1 and 2 - 1978
Intercosmos-19 - 1979
Aureol-3 -1981
Intercosmos-Bulgaria 1300 - 1982
Salyut-7 - 1985
Meteor-3 - 1986
Cosmos 1809 -1987
Activny -(Intercosmos-24) -1989
TOPEX/Poseidon - 1996
MIR Space Station
GPS -1994-2002

* 関連:High-energy charged particle flux variations in vicinity of Earth as earthquake precursors
     Earthquakes with Reported Electomagnetic Precursors (CenSSIS)
地震の接近に伴う電子の集中、電磁放射、イオン質量変動、粒子降下を含む地球近傍プラズマの異なったパラメーターが衛星によって記録されました:
  • "Alouette"、"АЕ―С"、"ISIS-2"、"Intercosmos-19 -24"、"TOPEX/Poseidon"、"GPS"衛星に搭載された局所的調査と電離圏サウンディング技術によって、強い地震の1~5日前に電離圏プラズマの特異な変動が検出された

  • "OGO-6"、"GEOS-1・-2"、"Cosmos-1809"、"Intercosmos-19, -24"、"Intercosmos-Bulgaria-1300"、"Aureol-3"のデータによって、地震動の数時間/数日前に、L-shellに沿いに数千km、子午線に沿いに約1000kmのサイズであるVLF/ELF放射の異常が観測された

  • "Intercosmos-Bulgaria-1300"、"Aureol-3"、"Meteor-3"、"Intercosmos-24"、軌道ステーション"Saluyt-7"および"Mir"のデータによって、エネルギー粒子フラックス(数百keV~数十MeV)と強い地震の間に、空間的・時間的相関が検出された

  • 1980年代に開始されたVukanプロジェクトの短い歴史をFigure 1に示す。


    Fig.1: The diagram of the "Valkan" project development history

    熱中と悲観の間、多くの変遷の後に、地震前兆の研究・監視専用システムの最終的なコンセプトは固まりました。電磁気的互換性のない異なる観測手法を考慮し、2層で構成された衛星システムに分割することが決定されました。高度400kmの軌道の下層の衛星群は、電磁気ノイズ測定及び地表温度のようなリモートセンシングを行います。より高い軌道の衛星群は、主にトップサイド・サウンディングを含む宇宙プラズマの測定を行います。上層の軌道は1000km付近に選択されました。

    「Vulkan」システムの下層衛星群は、異なる経度に等経度に配置された12機の衛星で構成されるでしょう。上層衛星システムは同じ原則で軌道配置された6機の衛星で構成されます。

    Figure 2に示す全ての衛星は、NIIEMで開発された同じプラットフォームを基本に製作されるでしょう。全ての軌道は、傾斜角82度*太陽同期準回帰軌道です。衛星のミッションライフは最低7年でしょう。基本プラットフォームの主要諸元をTable 2に示します。

    * ロシアでは98度とは表記しないようである


    Fig.2 The general view of the basic platform of "Vulkan" satellite system

    Table 2
    Mass of the payloads
    Satellite mass
    Average orbit power consumption of the support module
    Supply voltage
    Attitude control accuracy along orbital coordinate system (OCS) axes
    Attitude control stability per each axis
    Accuracy of the S/C orbit position determination
    Guarantee mission lifetime
    117 kg
    202 kg
    90 W
    27 V
    20 ang.min
    0.005 °/sec
    +/-70 m
    7 years

    最終ペイロードは未定ですが、測定される主要なプラズマ及び他のパラメーターは既に選定されています:
  • 準静的電場・磁場
  • 電子・イオン密度及びその高度分布
  • イオン-質量構造
  • ELF-VLF及びHFの電磁放射
  • 電子・イオン温度
  • 電子・イオンフラックスのパワー・スペクトラム(15 keV以上)
  • 複数帯域の赤外放射強度
  • 波長727-1103nm帯の放射
  • 本計画は、DEMETERVARIANTCOSMICのような地震前兆現象の観測を目的とする他の宇宙計画と緊密に協力した開発を図ります。
    Source: The Problems Of Satellite Monitoring Of Earthquake Precursors And Russian Satellite Constellation "Vulkan", V. N. Oraevsky, K. A. Boyarchuk, S. A. Pulinets, ISTEP 2002
         Small satellites constellation for monitoring natural and man-made catastrophes (COPUOS Scientific and Technical Subcommittee: 2003)

    SPACE-BASED ON-LINE SHORT-TERM EARTHQUAKE FORECAST SYSTEM

    The purpose of the programme is to develop in 2001-2006 a space-based system ensuring highly accurate earthquake warning, detection and registration of abnormal physical phenomena in the atmosphere, ionosphere and magnetosphere of the Earth, caused by seismic activity in earthquake zones.

    The space segment is built around a two-level system, formed by low-orbit (H=400 km) and high-orbit (H=1,000 km) spacecraft, codenamed Vulkan-N and Vulkan-V respectively.

    The spacecraft development project is included in the Russian Federal Space Programme for 2001-2005.

    The NIIEM Electromechanics Research Institute (Istra, Moscow Region) is prime contractor for the Vulkan space segment.

    The research equipment system is being developed by the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Waves Propagation of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IZMIRAN, prime contractor), Moscow State Institute of Physics and Engineering (MIFI), Scientific Research Institute of Nuclear Physics at Moscow State University (NIIYaF MGU), Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IKI RAN), Central Machine-building Research Institute (TsNIIMASh), Geophysics Institute (IFZ), Radio Electronics Institute (IRE), Military Technical Aviation University (VATU), Institute of Applied Geophysics (IPG) and Reagent Research Centre.

    The first group of two or three spacecraft is planned to be launched in 2005-2006 by the Rokot or Strela launch vehicle to be placed in sun-synchronous orbit.

    Parameters measured by the on-board data system: plasma composition, ionosphere altitude profile, plasma ion composition, ULF/VLF/HF noises, airglow, meteorological parameters, earth surface temperature, energy particles, magnetic field, electric field, etc.

    S/C Technical Data
    Service bus weight, kg117
    Spacecraft weight, kg202
    Average orbit power consumption of the service module, W 90
    Spacecraft maximal power consumption, W210
    Supply voltage, V27
    Axis orientation accuracy, deg/min20
    Axis orientation stability, deg /sec0.005
    Spacecraft in-orbit location accuracy, m+70
    Guaranteed mission lifetime, years7


    FGUP Research Institute For Electromechanics
    Istra, Moscow Region, 143500
    Tel. (095) 994-51-10, 994-51-42
    Fax (095) 975-49-17, 096) 31-52-401
    E-mail: niiem@istra.net.ru elkos@istra.net.ru

    Source: NIIEM's SATELLITES (www.airfleet.ru)

    Vulkanなニュース

  • "Vulkan" forecasts earthquake (Redstar, Jan. 12, 2001)
    Recent seven-point earthquake in Turkmenia again forced specialists to think about the effective prognostication of this natural calamity. It is calculated, that the yearly damage from the earthquakes in the world comprises more than 20 billion dollars. But the largest misfortune - tens of thousands of those been killed. Only in 1998 in three large earthquakes in Turkey, Greece, in Taiwan and in Mexico perished more than 16 thousand people.

    The problem of the prognostication of earthquakes is the focus of the attention of Russian scientists. Since 1990 by St. Petersburg federal state unitary enterprise “KB “arsenal” [im]. OF [M].[V]. of Frunze” together with the institute of terrestrial magnetism, ionosphere and radiowave propagation RAN [Russian Academy of Science] (g. Of [troitsk] Moscow reg.) are conducted works in this region. They developed the space warning system of earthquakes in two days, which determines epicentre and exemplary time of calamity. This makes it possible to in time prevent population about the future misfortune, to evacuate people from the assumed region of destruction, to disconnect industrial objects, to stop nuclear reactors and so forth.

    The basis of warning system composes micro-satellite "Predvestnik-E" and complex of scientific gear "Vulkan". Its space segment is the two-level group of small automatic spacecraft (KA) with the heights of circular orbits of 500 and 1.000 km, standardized platforms created on the base. Each satellite bears magnetometers, frequency instruments, spectrometers of energy particles, analyzers of the plasma, which in the upper air and the ionosphere determine the changes, proceeding in the earth's crust, they measure the wave characteristics of the magnetosphere of the Earth. They are intersected by sensors and are transferred to the earth.

    As reported the deputy design project leader KB Vladimir Sapozhnikov, scientific research on the project "Vulkan" are already completed. The design of base satellite is developed and its full-scale mock-up is built. The stage of experimental design works began. The design of elements KA occurs. It will be modular and multipurpose. In Russia already there is an experience of the use of satellites for the prediction of seismic catastrophes. Thus, during the earthquakes in Iran in the 80's after several days scientists obtained information about the threatening calamity.

    Work along the system "Vulkan" is conducted with the support and to order Russian aerospace agency. It declared competition to the project of the creation of satellite group. In it six organizations of Russia participate. On January 15 it is planned to bring its sums. Conqueror will obtain 290 million rubles. However, specialists evaluate the cost of project into 200 million dollars. Project provides for removal from 8 to 20 satellites, but it is possible to manage with 6-8.

    The search of partners and sponsors in parallel goes. Are made proposals to Japanese, Chilean, Iranian and German specialists. It is remarkable, that "Vulkan" does not have foreign analogs. True, works in this direction conduct French scientists. They intend to neglect this satellite not earlier than 2002. In Russia this project can be realized already in the present year.
  • V. V. Dmitrenko, Earthquake Prediction from Satellites (April 17, 2001)

  • 4th IAA Symposium on Small Satellites for Earth Observation (April 7 - 11, 2003)
     IAA-B4-1108P Small Satellite Platform "Vulkan"
     IAA-B4-1109P Scientific Instrumentation for the Small Satellite Platform "Vulkan"
     IAA-B4-1110P Small Satellite "KOMPAS-2"
    こーゆーネタもありなのね・・・(^^;
  • Геосейсмическое эхо солнечных бурь, или Землетрясения рождаются на Солнце (Novosti Kosmonavtiki, No.6 2003)

  • Система «Вулкан» для прогноза катастроф (Novosti Kosmonavtiki, No.10 2003)

  • Russians Look To Launch Leaner Satellites (St. Petersburg Times, Sept. 9, 2003)
    IZMIRAN is developing the Vulkan satellite systems as part of Russia's 2001-05 federal space program. The five satellites required for the new system will be launched on a platform designed by the Institute of Electromechanics near Moscow and the Makeyev State Rocket Center design bureau located in the Chelyabinsk region. The first satellites will be assembled in the first half of next year, but Orayevsky was not willing to say how much the project will cost or estimate the launch cost.

    The Vulkan satellites will be much lighter than current satellites, mainly because the instruments used on them have been shrunk to miniature size. For example, Orayevsky said, the main instrument used to measure the electron density of the ionosphere, the electron canon, now weighs only 20 kilograms. "Together with the Paton [electric welding] institute [of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences] in Kiev, we have developed an electron canon that weighs 2 kilograms," he said. Researchers achieved these results by changing the way electron density is measured, not by refining existing technologies. "Before it was measured by reflecting radio waves off points in the ionosphere, now we measure wave-resonance characteristics," he said. According to Orayevsky, changing the principal measurements has allowed researchers to shrink many instruments they use down to size.

    As a result, IZMIRAN has been able to develop satellites that weigh less than 100 kilograms. Together with its platform, a Vulkan satellite - orbiting at heights of 400 kilometers to 1,100 kilometers at an angle of 82.5 degrees - weighs in at 202 kilograms.
    "You don't need an entire Proton or Soyuz rocket to put something like that into space," Orayevsky said.
  • 宇宙飛行ミッションについての最新報告(第18回世界宇宙飛行士会議)
    このセッションの座長のロシアの宇宙飛行士セルゲイ・アウデエフさんも、自然災害防止について発表し、地上で起こっている地震、洪水などの自然災害、人為的な災害を観測・警報する「ブルカン(火山の意味)」という名前の地球観測システムを紹介しました。またサリュート、ミールの時代からISSにいたる現在も継続されている「ウラガン(大嵐の意味)」プロジェクトについて説明し、日本を含めて地震予知に関心ある国々もユーザとして参加してほしいと伝えました。

    参考:XVIII Congress of the Association of Space Explorers (ASE)
  • 地震の電離層における前兆現象 Ionospheric Precursors of Earthquakes
    Pulinets, Sergey., University of Mexico, Codigo, Mexico; Boyarchuk, Kirill., IZMIRAN, Moscow, Russia

     最近、話題になっている地震活動と電離層における現象との関係について解説されている。マグニチュードの大きな地震発生前の数日・数時間の地震活動地域で観測された地球周辺のプラズマの変異について説明されている。
     地震と電離層との相互作用が地球規模の電気回路現象として説明され、地震活動地域に現れる異常電界現象が地球から電離層への情報の伝播として示されている。地震活動の物理的なメカニズムが、さまざまな実験データに基づいて論じられており、近い将来に発生するであろう地震予知などへの応用の基礎的な成果として期待されている。
     地震活動の発生と電離層との関係について解説した有用な研究文献として、地震学分野の研究者や専門家の方々におすすめする。

  • IV International Conference & Exhibition Small Satellites (TsNIIMASH)

  • Проект «Вулкан»: перспективы развития36. Проект ВУЛКАН (IKI)

  • COMPASS-2 and VULKAN satellite system for the short-term earthquake warning (AGU Fall Meeting 2004)
    Pulinets, S. A.; Boyarchuk, K. A.
    Workshop on Early Warning Systems for Earthquake Monitoring by Using Space Technology
  • 'It becomes the Marmara earthquake in 10 years' (Milliyet, 2005.2.2)
    Japanese scientists at Tokai University professor Seiya Uyeda, "in practice between 2020 and 2010 will make it possible to predict earthquakes. 2010, so it will be solved in theory," he said. At Bogazici University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute "Space and Satellite Technology Using Monitoring Purposes of the Earthquake Early Warning System Workshop" he began.
  • 'We say Marmara earthquake five days ago' (Milliyet, 2005.2.3)
    The Russian Academy of Sciences, Prof. Sergey Pulinets, the cost of the satellite system is $ 150 million, earthquakes 1 - 5 days said they predicted, "If desired, the system can be set up in Turkey," he said. "Space and Satellite Technology Using Monitoring Purposes of the Earthquake Early Warning System Workshop" in participating Russian scientists, earthquake location, time, claimed they knew greatness. Pulinets system is explained:

  • Space-borne Observations for Short-term Earthquake Predictions (IEEE) A two-day workshop in Istanbul, Turkey (Bodo W. Reinisch)
  • RUSSIA TO LAUNCH WEATHER SATELLITES (Novosti)
    MOSCOW, May 17 (RIA Novosti) - Russia has no weather satellites in orbit. The Meteor-M spacecraft is to fill up this substantial gap in the satellite group in 2006, says a report by the Russian Space Agency (Roskosmos).

    "The completion of the construction, tests and the launch of the Meteor-M weather satellite and a smaller craft Canopus-Vulkan (for detecting man-caused catastrophes and first signs of earthquakes and avalanches) are scheduled for 2006," Roskosmos said.

    According to the draft of a new federal space program, allocations to remote Earth sensing will be almost 4 billion rubles in 2006 ($1=27.99 rubles), the document said.
  • The 12th Session of the Asia-Pacific Regional Space Agency Forum (2005.10.11-13)
    Russian Remote Sensing System
    Dr. Alexander Viktorov, Deputy Head, Space Automatic Compleces Department RFSA, Russia
    * DS-1かよ
  • Multi-satellite system "Vulcan" for the study of ionospheric phenomena preceding earthquakes and other natural and man-made disasters (IKI, November 2005 )
    Alekseev V.A., Dokukin V.S., Dmitriev G.A., Kuznetsov V.D., Ruzhin Y.Y.
  • Scientific and Technical Subcommittee: 2006 (20 February-3 March 2006)
    Space-borne system for online precursors monitoring of earthquakes, and other natural and man-made disasters
    Mr. Y. Ruzhin, Head of the Laboratory of Active Space Experiments Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN), Russian Academy of Sciences
  • Forecast earthquakes from space (Novosti, 22.03.2006)
    For a set of statistics and the further working off-board equipment and is scheduled to launch the satellite "Compass-2". Will bring it into orbit launch vehicle "Shtil". In the fourth quarter of 2006 to test the new tools for monitoring satellite is scheduled to launch next - "Compass-3".

    It should also be noted that testing of tools and techniques that will be more stakeholders involved, Wana on spacecraft geospatial system "Vulcan" for forecasting and Monitoringing natural and man-made disasters has long been carried out on board the Intertional Space Station as part of the program "Uragan". ISS, because of the low orbit, proved to be very handy tool for such studies in the ionosphere.
  • Natural Hazards and Oceanographic Processes from Satellite Data (Advances in Space Research Volume 37, Issue 4, Pages 633-874 (2006))
    S.A. Pulinets: Space technologies for short-term earthquake warning
  • Russia Places Order With SSTL For Satellite Platform Equipment (Spacedaily, 2007.3.28)
    The first satellite, KANOPUS-B, will be ready for launch in 2008. It will monitor the Earth's surface and will support the monitoring of disasters, agricultural planning and the management of water and coastal resources. Under the contract SSTL will supply FSUE NPP VNIIEM with the platform avionics equipment and software, and support their spacecraft assembly and integration activities in Russia.
  • Particle, Particle in Space, Tell Me About Earthquakes (Russia-IC, 2008.8.29)
    According to initial plans for "Volcano" space system development, researchers expected to finish everything in 2005-2006. Insufficient and sporadic funding was the reason they didn't finish the "Volcano" as scheduled - honestly speaking, finding enough money for research has always been a problem for Russian scientists.
  • Suddenly died Kirill Aleksandrovich Boyarchuk (VNIIEM, 2014.7.23)
    July 15 2014 Kirill Aleksandrovich Boyarchuk died at the fifty-fifth year of life - General Director of JSC "NIIEM", Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences.

    Vulkanなリンク
  • Многоспутниковая система "Вулкан" (IZMIRAN)|露英翻訳
  • Канопус - ВулканVULKAN Space System (NTs OMZ)
  • Project Vulkan – monitoring of the Earth seismic activity for earthquake and volcano eruption control. Launch date - 2006 (NEWS FROM MOSCOW, ESA, 2003)
  • Kanopus-Vulkan (RESTEC)
  • Kanopus-Vulkan (CEOS)

  • [ Predvestnik | Kompass-2 | Kanopus-Vulkan ]