2009 International Workshop on Validation of Earthquake Precursors by Satellite, Terrestrial and other Observations (VESTO): Case studies of the recent Asian events

Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, Volume 41, Issues 4-5, Pages 369-476 (5 June 2011) New
Validation of Earthquake Precursors-VESTO
Edited by Dimitar Ouzounov, Katsumi Hattori and J.Y. Liu
各位:上田誠也です。

来る3月26,27,28日に、千葉大学において、

2009 International Workshop on Validation of Earthquake Precursors by Satellite, Terrestrial and other Observations (VESTO): Case studies of the recent Asian events

なる国際ワークショップが開かれます。特に、
1. Sumatra (Indonesia) 2004.12.26, M 9.3;
2. Ping Tong (Taiwan) 2006.12.24, M7.0×2;
3. Chuetsu Oki (Japan) 2007.7.16, M6.8;
4. Wenchuan (China) 2008.5.12, M7.9
の4地震について観測された衛星・地上その他のprecursorsを持ち寄って、比較検討しようというのが狙いです。Organizers (Dimitar Ouzounov、服部克巳、Tiger Liu)によれば、現段階では約60件の報告で、20件余は中国からの報告でWenchuan地震関係が多いとのことです。

Invited keynote speakersは、Tiger Liu, Qinghua Huang, Seiya Uyeda, Masashi Hayakawa, Kohichiro Oyama, Toshiyasu Nagao, Kiyohumi Yumoto, Sergey Pulinets, Dimitar Ouzounov, Andrew Tronin, Arin Saraf, Michel Parrot, Iwan Chen, Katsumi Hattoriの面々です(小生などは一般論しかできませんが)

この種のことは当然なされるべきことでしたが、漸くそれが可能な段階になったのかと思われます。どこまで建設的に議論がすすむのかは予測困難ですが、第一回の試みとして極めて有意義だと思いますので、short notice で恐縮ですが、もしご興味と時間がおありでしたら是非、お運びください。各位の辛口のご意見などは今後の研究レベルの向上のために大いに貴重なものとなりましょう。
VESTO Organizing committee
Dimitar Ouzounov (USA) Katsumi Hattori (Japan) Tiger Liu (Taiwan)

1st Day (26 March 2009)
10:00 - 10:15 Opening (Dimitar Ouzounov and Katsumi Hattori)

Session A: General topics (Chair: Toshiyasu Nagao)

10:15 - 11:00

A.1 On short-term earthquake prediction: A personal view
Seiya Uyeda (Invited)
11:00 - 11:45

A.2 Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling model - An unified concept for earthquake precursors validation
Sergey Pulinets and Dimitar Ouzounov (Invited)
11:45 - 13:00Lunch & Poster session

Session A: General topics & Wenchuan M7.9 Earthquake of May 12th 2008 (Chair: Dimitar Ouzounov)

13:00 - 13:45

A.3 Retrospective investigation of geophysical data possibly associated with the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake
Qinghua Huang (Invited)
13:45 - 14:30

A.4 Precursors, Anomalies and Predictions Before the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake and aftershocks
I-wan Chen (Invited)
14:30 - 15:15Coffee break. Q&A discussion. Topic of the day: "Wenchuan M7.9 Earthquake of May 12th 2008"


15:15 - 16:00

A.5 Remote Sensing Observations of Earthquake Thermal Precursors of India and Iran
Arun Saraf (Invited)
16:00 - 16:30Coffee break
16:30 - 17:00

A.6 Surface Temperature, Linear Clouds and Crust Deformation before Wenchuan Earthquake
Lixin WU, Jinping LI, and Shanjun Liu
17:00 - 17:30

A.7 Ionospheric TEC anomalies prior to large earthquakes in Indonesia and China - Statistical and case studies -
Masahide Nishihashi, Katsumi Hattori, Jann-Yenq Liu, and Michel Parrot
17:30 - 18:00



A.8 The electromagnetic precursors monitored by MDCB-5 instruments before three major earthquakes in Asia during 2004 - 2007 and lessons learnt from predictions on these earthquakes by the MDCB network
Wen-xiang Wang, Wu Ping, Wan, Lan-xiang, Yang, Wu-yang, Wang, Huiying, Gu, Shang-gao, Wang, Peng-cheng, Dong, En-hua
18:00 - 19:00Short Poster Presentations
2nd Day (27 March 2009)
Session B: General topics & M7.0 Ping Tong (Taiwan) and M6.8 Chuetsu Oki (Japan) earthquakes (Chair: Sergey Pulinets)

09:00 - 09:30

B.1 Results from DEMETER: Case studies and statistics
Michel Parrot (Invited)
09:30 - 10:15

B.2 Ionosphere parameters modified prior to large earthquakes and needs of satellite missions
Kohichiro Oyama, Y. Kakinami, and J. Y. Liu (Invited)
10:15 - 10:30Coffee break
10:30 - 11:15

B.3 VLF/LF radio sounding of ionospheric perturbations associated with earthquakes and their possible mechanism
Masashi Hayakawa (Invited)
11:15 - 11:45

B.4 Possibility of the seismo-electromagnetic ULF emission studies with the use of the Nagoya magnetometer array
Slava Pilipenko, Kazuo Shiokawa
11:45 - 12:15

V.1 Pre-Earthquake Signals
Friedemann Freund
12:15 - 14:00Lunch & Poster session

Session B: General topics & M7.0 Ping Tong (Taiwan) and M6.8 Chuetsu Oki (Japan) earthquakes (Chair: Qinghua Huang)

14:00 - 14:45

B.5 Earthquake precursors observed in the ionospheric F-region
J. Y. Liu (Invited)
14:45 - 15:30




B.6 Multi sensor approach of validating EM atmospheric signals associated with major earthquakes. Case studies for the recent 2004-2008 Asian events.
Dimitar Ouzounov, Sergey Pulinets, Katsumi Hattori, Tiger Liu, Michel Parrot, Menas Kafatos, Shahid Habib, Fritz Policelli, Patrick Taylor (Invited)
Thermal Response before the Strong Earthquakes by Analyzing Multisensor Satellite Data
15:30 - 16:00

Coffee break. Q&A discussion.
Topic of the day: "M7.0 Ping Tong (Taiwan) and M6.8 Chuetsu Oki (Japan) earthquakes"
16:00 - 16:30

B.7 Ionospheric Plasma Turbulence as a Precursor of the Earthquake
Jan Blecki, Michel Parrot, Roman Wronowski
16:30 - 17:00


B.9 A study on the detection of seismo-electromagnetic abnormal phenomena before earthquakes and their fractal characteristics.
Yuichi Ida, Masashi Hayakawa
17:00 - 17:30

B.10 Tectonic Stress Wave, Micro-Fracture Wave, and A Modified Elastic-Rebound Model of Earthquake
Fuyuan Zhao
17:30 - 18:10

V.2 Recent advances on Seismic Electric Signals by employing natural time analysis
E.S. Skordas, N.V. Sarlis, M.S. Lazaridou, and P.A. Varotsos
18:15 - 20:00Welcome Party
3rd Day (28 March 2009)
Session C: General topics & M9.0 Sumatra earthquake (Chair: Tiger Jann-Yenq Liu)

09:00 - 09:45


C.1 The current status of the seismo-electromagnetism in view of the Japanese national earthquake prediction research program
Toshiyasu Nagao (invited)
09:45 - 10:30

C.2 A Case Study of ULF Anomaly Associated with the Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake on Dec. 26, 2004
K. Yumoto, M.G. Cardinal, K. Shiokawa, M Ruhimat, and S. Saroso (invited)
10:30 - 10:45Coffee break
10:45 - 11:15

C.3 The Analysis of GPS-TEC Variation Related with Large Earthquakes in Sumatra
Hendri Subakti, Sunarjo,Nanang T. Puspito, Djedi S.Widarto
11:15 - 11:45

P.31 Earthquake forecast testing center for Japan: A Review
Kazuyoshi Nanjo, Hiroshi Tsuruoka, Naoshi Hirata, and CSEP Working group
11:45 - 13:45Lunch & Poster session


Session C: General topics & M9.0 Sumatra earthquake (Chair: Masashi Hayakawa)

13:45 - 14:30

C.5 Remote sensing applications for Sumatra earthquake 26 Dec 2004.
Andrew Tronin (invited)
14:30 - 15:15

C.6 Seismo-Electromagnetic phenomena possibly associated with the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake
Katsumi Hattori (invited)
15:15 - 15:45

C.7 Abnormal infrasound signals before the Indonesia strong earthquakes
Yaqin Xia, Junzhi Li, and Weisheng Chen
15:45 - 16:15
C.8 Coffee break. Q&A discussion. Topic of the day: "M9.0 Sumatra Earthquake"
16:15 - 16:45

C.9 An Integrated and Truncated Approach for Earthquake Prediction
Arun Bapat
16:45 - 17:15

C.10 The spatial pattern of the temporal SST variations during the 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake
George Miliaresis and Akis Tselentis
17:15 - 18:00Final discussion
18:00 - 18:05Closing Remarks (Dimitar Ouzounov and Katsumi Hattori)
Poster Presentation
P01. Signatures of ionospheric anomalies in GPS-TEC prior to the large magnitude earthquakes in China region
Vishal Chauhan, O.P. Singh and Birbal Singh
P02. Seismo-ionospheric GPS TEC Anomalies Observed before the 12 May 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake
J. Y.Liu, Y. I. Chen, C. H. Chen, C. Y. Liu, C. Y. Chen, M. Nishihashi, J. Z. Li, Y. Q. Xia, K.I. Oyama, K. Hattori, and C. H. Lin
P03. Imminent precursors of M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake
Jun-zhi Li, Cheng-Yan Liu, Wei-sheng Chen, and Ya-qin Xia
P04. Abnormal Phenomenon of NCEP before Wenchuan
Weiyu Ma, Wencheng Chen, and Lixin Wu
P05. Ionospheric total electron content variation related to the 2007 Niigataken Chuetsu-oki Earthquake, Japan
Shimpei Kon, Masahide Nishihashi, and Katsumi Hattori
P06. Relationship between the crustal activities and ULF geomagnetic field at South Boso Peninsula
Hisashi Ishikawa and Katsumi Hattori
P07. ULF geomagnetic change associated with the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake
Takuya Hirano, Hitomi Ogawa, Hisashi Ishikawa, and Katsumi Hattori
P08. Direction finding of ULF/ELF geomagnetic field data possibility associated with the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake.
Takuya Hirano, Chie Yoshino, Katsumi Hattori, and Qinghua Huang
P09. Monitoring of volcanic activity using MODIS data
Takafumi Noguchi, Nozomi Ono, Katsumi Hattori
P10. Integrated measurement for seismo-electromagnetic study at Iyogatake station, Japan
Katsumi Hattori, Masahide Nishihashi, Takuya Hirano, Hisashi Ishikawa, Chie Yoshino, Shota Saito, Shinji Tokonami, Masashi Kamogawa, Toshiyasu Nagao, Nobuhiro Isezaki, Kiyoshi Wadatsumi, and Dimitar Ouzounov
P11. The very clear “Drought-Earthquake Relation” medium-term precursor and strategic significance of earthquake medium-term prediction before the Wenchuan earthquake
Qing-guo Geng and I-wan Chen
P12. A newly discovered earthquake electromagnetic precursor , its features and its appearance before the Wenchuan earthquake and aftershocks
Zhi-min Yang, Yan-hao Sun, and I-wan Chen
P13. Theory and Methodology of Impending HRT Wave Precursors and Method of Earthquake Impending Prediction by Using HRT Wave
Fu-ye Qian, Yu-lin Zhao, and I-wan Chen
P14. Impending HRT Wave Precursors to the 2006 Sumatra Ms9.2 Earthquake and Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake and Methods of Earthquake Impending Prediction by Using HRT Wave
Fu-ye Qian, Yu-lin Zhao, and I-wan Chen
P15. The earthquake gestation physical model and impending physical precursors for the Ms 8.7 and Ms 8.5 earthquakes in the Indian Ocean
Wei Sun and I-wan Chen
P16. The methodology verifying deterministic precursors and physical model of earthquakes
Wei Sun and I-wan Chen
P17. Earthquake Originates from Interaction Between Planets of the Solar System
Yue-ming Wu, Ming-fu Cao, and I-wan Chen
P18. The Evidence of Strong Earthquakes Triggering by Strong Strong Astronomical Tides
Dong-hong Yang, Xue-xiang Yang, and I-wan Chen
P19. The Deterministic Atmospheric Density Advection Abnormality Precursors Before the 2004 Sumatra Earthquake, the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and Historical Earthquakes in China
Shou-zheng Tao and I-wan Chen
P20. Analysis of terrestrial stress and telluric-current precursors monitored by one single earthquake observatory and prediction of occurrence dates, epicenter location and magnitude of earthquakes
Gen-shen Liu and I-wan Chen
P21. Analysis of geomagnetic precursors leads to study of present crust structural movements revealing high hazard risk regions - Wenchuan earthquake
Tie-zhen Zhang and I-wan Chen
P22. How one analyst studies of the electromagnetic precursors monitored by the MDCB network and uses the MDCB method to predict earthquakes within China during the second half of 2008
Li-ting An, Wu-yang Yang, and I-wan Chen
P23. Using the MDCB method to analyze electromagnetic precursors before the Wenchuan EQ and aftershocks
Wen-xiang Wang
P24. The Astronomical Background of Strong Earthquakes Wenchuan Ms8.0 in 2008, Taiwan Pingtong Ms7.0 in 2006 and Japan Chuetsu Oki Ms6.8 in 2007
Hui Hu and I-wan Chen
P25. Wenchuan Earthquake Precursor–Satellite Infrared Abnormal Temperature Increasing Temporal-Spatial Evolution
Xiu-deng Xu, Bao-hua Xiu, Qing-yun Mao, and I-wan Chen
P26. VHF interferometer and radio propagation property
Nozomi Ohno, Katsumi Hattori, Toshiaki Takano, Isao Yamamoto
P27. Principal component analysis of ULF electromagnetic data for automatic identifying anomalous changes
Shota Saito, Hisashi Ishikawa, Takumi Hirano, Katsumi Hattori
P28. On the statistical correlation between the ionospheric perturbations as detected by subionospheric VLF/LF propagation anomalies and earthquakes
Y. Kasahara, Y. Ida, F. Muto, and M. Hayakawa
P29. The birth of a pre-earthquake signal certified by fingerprint recognition
Yoshiki Sue
P30.
Hong-Chun Wu
P31. Earthquake forecast testing center for Japan: A Review
Kazuyoshi Nanjo, Hiroshi Tsuruoka, Naoshi Hirata, and CSEP Working group
P32. (B.8) Precursors for M6.8 Earthquake occurred in Japan on July 16, 2007
Jun-zhi Li, Wei-sheng Chen, Ya-qin Xia, and Cheng-yan Liu
P33. (C.4) ULF/VLF amplitude anomalies related to Indonesia earthquake of 26 December 2004
Birbal Singh
P34. (C.8) Total Electron Content (TEC) anomalies related to large magnitude earthquakes occurred in South-East Asia during 2007
O.P. Singh, Vishal Chauhan, and Birbal Singh

Scientific Reports
  • J. Y. Liu, Precursors and Co-seismic signatures in the ionosphere during the 26 December 2004 M9.3 Sumatra Earthquake, 6th Taiwan-Japan International Workshop on Hydrological and Geochemical Research for Earthquake Prediction, September 26-27, 2007 NCKU, TAIWAN
  • Molchanov, O., Rozhnoi, A., Solovieva, M., Akentieva, O., Berthelier, J. J., Parrot, M., Lefeuvre, F., Biagi, P. F., Castellana, L., and Hayakawa, M.: Global diagnostics of the ionospheric perturbations related to the seismic activity using the VLF radio signals collected on the DEMETER satellite, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 745-753, 2006.
  • D. Ouzounov, S. Habib and S. Ambrose, Application of Remote Sensing Technologies for Disaster Risk Management: Multisensor Approach of Analyzing Atmospheric Signals and Search for Possible Earthquake Precursors (IDRC 2008, Davos)
  • S. Uyeda, T. Nagao and M. Kamogawa, Short-term earthquake prediction: Current status of seismo-electromagnetics (Tectonophysics, in press)
  • M. Nishihashi, K. Hattori, and J.Y. Liu: Ionospheric disturbances possibly associated with large earthquakes-temporal and spatial analysis- (EMSEV-DEMETER Workshop)
  • J. Y. Liu, GPS Scientific Application Research Center (GPSARC) 2007-2009 (ISAR-NCU 2008)
  • D Ouzounov, S Pulinets, P Taylor, N Bryant, G Cervone, M Kafatos, S Habib, Verification of Atmospheric Signals Associated with Major Seismicity by Space and Terrestrial Observations (2008 AGU Fall Meeting)
  • K Hattori, M Nishihashi, J Liu, M Parrot, Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Ionospheric Disturbances Prior to Large Earthquakes (ibid)
  • Y Chen, J Y Liu, Seismo-ionospheric Precursors before the 12 May 2008 Mw7.9 Sichuan Earthquake observed by GIM and FORMOSAT3/COSMIC (ibid)
  • Chen, C.; Liu, J.; Lee, L.; Wong, A., Ionospheric electron density variations observed by FORMOSAT3/COSMIC during AKR experiments and the Sichuan earthquake (ibid)
  • Oyama, K.-I., Y. Kakinami, J.-Y. Liu, M. Kamogawa, and T. Kodama (2008), Reduction of electron temperature in low-latitude ionosphere at 600 km before and after large earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 113, A11317, doi:10.1029/2008JA013367.
  • Liu, J.Y., Y. I. Chen, C.H. Chen, C. Y. Liu, C. Y. Chen, M. Nishihashi, J. Z. Li, Y. Q. Xia, K. I. Oyama, K. Hattori, and C. H. Lin (2009), Seismoionospheric GPS total electron content anomalies observed before the 12 May 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1029/2008JA013698, in press.

    Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, Volume 34, Issues 6-7, Pages 341-516 (2009)
    Electromagnetic Phenomena Associated with Earthquakes and Volcanoes
    Edited by M. Hayakawa, J.Y. Liu, K. Hattori and L. Telesca

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  • [Japanese Activity on Seismo Electromagnetics Publication list (2002-2006)]