実は、これらの予知の後も、本年６月８日のM6.3の予知にも成功しています。新しい時間概念に基づくこれらについての詳しいことは、日本学士院紀要の最新号にSarlis et al.論文として掲載されています。これはJ-STAGEでProc Japan Academy, Ser. Bからご覧になれます。（関連報道 6/9, 6/10, 6/13）
Seismicity and geoelectric potential changes, possibly associated with the seismic swarm activity in 2000 in the Izu Island region, Japan, are analyzed in the framework of the natural time χ, which has been recently introduced as an index of the kth event χ = k/N, where N is the total number of events. The Izu 2000 swarm activity lasted for about 2 months with some 7000 shocks with magnitude M ≥ 3 and five M ≥ 6 shocks, and was preceded by a pronounced electrical activity with innumerable signals that started 2 months prior to the swarm onset. It is shown, first, that the seismicity subsequent to the electrical activity approaches to a critical stage a few days before the occurrence of the first M ≥ 6 shock and, second, that the electrical signals also have the properties characteristic to the critical stage. Despite the big differences in time scale and numbers of electric signals and earthquakes, these features are found similar to those in Greece. The present results suggest that both in Greece and Japan, the electrical activity as well as the subsequent seismicity may have a self-similar structure and exhibits similar dynamic evolution toward critical stage.
"At some point, you will see it in the future, we will be able earthquake forecasting accurately in time. For the heart I think it will be easy to have a clear definition of the place, there will be a deviation of several kilometers. The team BAN showed great work on, I think it will give more important things in science. "
The new achievement of Greek scientists adds to the internationally known system VAN Professor Panayiotis Varotsos from the University of Athens, studying electrical signals 'SES' long impending earthquake that occurs over a period of 2 to 4 months.
The state has only feebly so far support the efforts of the scientists proceed, some important steps forward, the science of seismology - physics.
Especially in the case of Prof. Varotsos, there is the paradox whenever confirmed his predictions, receive passionate attacks from specific portion colleagues!
They are those who continue to argue that there was no provision, even where provisions VAN team have formal confirmation, like last year with the headline of "Sunday Nation" on February 10, which was confirmed after three days.
With great difficulty the team Varotsos doing her studies, having a very limited network of recording stations signals "SES", limited to 10, but much more is needed, covering at least the areas of known seismic activity.
Already the site of Cornell University has existed since March 13, 2009 posted the latest forecast team Varotsos that the familiar words "study area" refers to the Peloponnese and the west sea area, with coordinates: 37.5 North and 38.5. South 19.8 and 23.3.
After 15 years Professor Panayiotis Varotsos broke his silence and spoke to show "Yellow Press" Maki Triantafillopoulos. Professor of Physics, University of Athens made extensive reference to the records of the team van, but for the noise caused by the Provisions for impending earthquake and the seismic activity of the last period. Other points Prof. Varotsos the video below.
Very recently a new war broke out between seismologists in response to the proposal submitted to the Information Society National Observatory for the drastic improvement and modernization of infrastructure instrumental. The proposal, approximately 6,800,000 euros, would be auctioned soon but other seismologists reacted like Mr. C. Papazachos and A. Tselentis, as they say, not participating. Exchanged letters and hard. Reveals that on February 9, 2011 meeting of seismologists caused by the Undersecretary of Education, Mr. J. Panaretos but for now there seems to be ending. From the National Observatory say they hope that both the Information Society and the Ministry of Education will not succumb to pressure from seismologists who respond and will not abort an important project that does not affect anyone, contrary to modernize the observatory which is the coordinating center of seismological agencies.
The last 30 years
Thirty years into the main concerns of the State is and earthquake protection, which occurs in many ways that natural economic ... tingling! Huge funds have been spent to fortify against the suddenly and unexpectedly awakenings of Enceladus. The two main funding sources for earthquakes is the Earthquake Protection Agency, which reports to the Ministry of Infrastructure and the General Secretariat for Research and Technology-than funds coming from the European Union. Also the general secretariats of the Regions, Municipalities and communities can finance activities seismic protection.
The EPPO first opened in 1983 and up to ten years later financed relevant bodies ie without notices. The first official notice was announced in 1992 when she was given 1,467,000 Euro for the implementation of the 65 proposals approved by the 90-tabled. The work on the seismic constructions, properties of earthquakes, seismotectonics and the seismic social defense, which included psychological consequences following an earthquake is extremely essential!
VAN
From 1982 to 1989 the group BAN took about two and a half billion drachmas was then that the scientist had given hope to the entire world community.
In 1994, the then Education Minister George Papandreou issued Presidential Decree which bind 5 ministries to subsidize with 293,000 euros a year, the fledgling institute at the Physics Department of the University of Athens, whose director was appointed Mr Varotsos. The Institute continues to work for the study of the earth's crust and the money we hope to have grasped place since at least the primary objective, the forecasting is not reached!
In 1999, the Ministry had assigned directly to the two professors microstrip study of the area that gave the quake. Without the involvement of the EPPO or GSRT given directly to a large amount Dimitris Papanikolaou, professor of geology and Mr. P. Marino, engineering geology professor. Discontent among scientists was then great. It seems that these very wager to Mr. M. Pap which in recent months
claimed the position of Director of both the observatory and the Greek Centre for Marine Research, but not selected by the leadership of the Ministry of Education.
In 2000, under the terror of the earthquake in Athens EPPO funded dozens of organizations with 1, 5 billion. Then there was neither a known laboratory, engineering or any service that had to do with the earthquakes that did not submit proposals!
Three years after the GSRT announces new program called "built environment and seismic risk management" for which he submitted 30 proposals. For 14 adopted allocated about 19 million.
Money are indeed many and the work of seismic protection is huge and evolving. Reasonable course is the question that can go all the money especially since many seismologists occasionally complain about the lack of money in the fierce and unequal "war" to do with earthquakes. Institutions, research, scholarships, field work, measurements, computers, advanced programs, experiments, trips, and they not only spent the money given for earthquake activities.
Meanwhile, as revealed by documents of the Institute of Physics of the Earth's crust to the Ministry of Culture dated November 4, 2011, 6 by 9 points in the van do not work, as they face a serious maintenance problem. The financial support of the Institute has halted long , although this is provided by the Presidential Decree 322/1994. How much is the fee? Eight thousand dollars a year!
According to the letter to the Ministry of Culture Varotsos, 6 of the 9 stations that do not have to operate while danger and the operation of other 3.
Recognizing the difficulty by P. Varotsos wondering how can the grant of such an important method, which costs just € 8,000 per station and provided by the Presidential Decree number .322/1944 interrupted. Father in his letter Varotsos says some successful predictions of the team van before large earthquakes in Methoni (magnitude 6.9 on the Richter scale) on February 14, 2008 and that same year in Andravida (size 6.5 points) on 8 June.
The researchers observed 19 anomalous changes in the strength and movement of geoelectric currents, 11 of which were proceeded by 3.0-magnitude or stronger quakes within 30 days — a 58 percent rate of occurrence, they reported in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.
"This rate of probability is statistically significant," said Toshiyasu Nagao, a Tokai University professor who coauthored the study. "There is debate over the existence of precursors to earthquakes, but (this study) indicates that some may exist."
The researchers said they excluded geoelectric anomalies caused by factors such as lightning strikes and the sun when determining this rate of occurrence, and reported that a total of 23 temblors with a minimum magnitude of 3.0 struck during the period they examined.
They selected Kozu because of its remoteness and distance from any urban environments, which generate a variety of noises that can effect geoelectricity levels.
Their technique is similar to the so-called VAN method, which was developed in Greece to predict earthquakes based on seismic electric signals. However, scientists have mixed views on the VAN method's effectiveness and purported 60 percent success rate for forecasting temblors.
Earthquake prediction by seismic electric signals : the success of the VAN method over thirty years/ Mary E. Lazaridou-Varotsos / Lazaridou-Varotsos, Mary S.. -- Springer, 2012. -- (Springer praxis books in geophysical sciences)
Prediction of epicenter and magnitude of an earthquake in VAN is OK, but how it is able to predict when an earthquake will happen?
"We racked how to determine in a few days when an earthquake will happen," claimed the transceiver. Varotsos. "The signal we months before an earthquake occurs, but we tried to get closer to the event with the theory of Natural Time, which is a new concept for the time which suggested our team. And that we "explains the" E ", referring to mathematical parameter analyzed enough in his speech. The K1, So parameter derived from the theory of Natural Time is the element that shows how close or far we are from an earthquake. When this parameter reaches the value 0.070 approaching the critical point, which means that it is a matter of days to manifest earthquake.
