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Kick-off meeting · Potenza (Italy) · 15-16 March 2011
Public Opening Session Program
No high-accuracy way to predict earthquakes - scientist (RT, 2011.3.12)
Romanov, RSS Contribution to Pre-Earthquakes, Pre-Earthquakes Kick-off Meeting, Potenza, March 15, 2011
* 参考：The Concept of the Ionosphere Tomography Researches Using Clusters of the Small-sized Satellites, Semana del Espacio, Madrid, 2011
Cosmos 2414 Parus group 149,970 MHz
Atmosphere-Ionosphere Response to the M9 Tohoku Earthquake Revealed by Joined Satellite and Ground Observations. Preliminary results
この分野の研究の現在のフロンティアを拡大するために、異なる地上と衛星からの観測、異なるデータ分析手法、異なる測定パラメータが比較統合されるでしょう。 本プロジェクトの明確な科学的目的は、いくつかの独立した観測（単一パラメータ手法の代わりに）系統的統合が、短期地震予知に関する我々の現在の能力を改善できるか調査し示すことにあります。 本プロジェクトでは、地震準備過程の研究に関連する異なる手法と観測の統合・比較・改善のために、欧州宇宙機関とロシア連邦宇宙局が提供する衛星データへの無料アクセスといったユニークな機会を提供します。
- GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems)の一つの専門要素であるEarthquake Observation System (EQuOS) の世界的普及
Russian and foreign experts will study the signs of earthquakes together. On the European part, the participants in the project are Germany, Italy and Turkey; NASA, representing the USA, and Greece are associated members. Russian science is represented by the Russian Space Systems company, the Fedorov Institute of Applied Geophysics and the Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Waves Propagation.
As early as 2006, the Russian Space Systems company built a network of ground stations to monitor the ionosphere on the island of Sakhalin. Scientists analyzed changes in this upper layer of the atmosphere caused by seismic activity. Since that time, Russian satellites have more than once registered ionospheric disturbance ahead of earthquakes. Seven hours before the first tremors in Japan, scientists discovered similar anomalies over the site of the forthcoming disaster.
Valerio Tramutoli PRE-EARTHQUAKES Project
PRE-EARTHQUAKES (Processing Russian and European EARTH observations for earthQUAKE precursors Studies) EU-FP7 project is devoted to demonstrate - integrating different observational data, comparing and improving different data analysis methods - how it is possible to progressively increase reliability of short term seismic risk assessment. Three main testing area were selected (Italy, Turkey and Sakhalin) in order to concentrate observations and integration efforts starting with a learning phase on selected events in the past devoted to identify the most suitable parameters, observations technologies, data analysis algorithms. For these areas, different ground (80 radon and 29 spring water stations in Turkey region, 2 magneto-telluric in Italy) and satellite (18 different systems) based observations, 11 data analysis methods, for 7 measured parameters, have been compared and integrated. A specific integration platform (PEG, Pre-Earthquakes Geoportal) based on OGC (Open Geospatial Consortium) standards, was developed to operate a products integration, cross-validation and scientific interpretation.
An international conference to discuss the earthquake precursors started in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk. This is the final meeting of scientists - participants of the project «PRE-Earthquakes», performed under the Seventh Framework Programme of EU-Russia. The organizer of the event were "Russian Space Systems."
At the opening ceremony, Deputy Prime Minister Elena Sakhalin Ivashov noted that the island region with earthquakes familiar. "Questions are a prediction not only of scientific interest, we are well aware. Of course, we are aware that these studies closer to basic science, rather than for practical use. However, the Government of Sakhalin Region is also involved in financing the project, hoping that in the future we can get analytical data to help predict such events, "- she said.
The project started in January last year, the competition for a study on earthquake precursors Union won three Russian companies (JSC "Russian Space Systems", Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation. Propagation RAS and Institute of Applied Geophysics. Fedorov) and three foreign partners from Germany, Italy and Turkey. The main task of scientists - to select the most versatile and reliable methods and a unified system of forecasting. Since July 2012 have already been made some attempts to predict, scientists were able to predict several seysmoyavleny, in particular, in the Kurile-Kamchatka Trench.
Senior Researcher, Institute of Applied Geophysics Sergei Pulinets explained the approach to the study of earthquake precursors using satellites. Seismic event is not limited to the Earth's surface by mechanical vibrations that register with seismometers. "All of the Earth's geosphere are interrelated, and the process of earthquake preparation continues in the atmosphere and in the ionosphere, and even in the magnetosphere. Satellite technology is given far greater benefits than ground point measurements, "- he said.
The advantage of this approach is that with the help of remote sensing can be detected a number of anomalies in the atmosphere for a few days before the event. If there is more than one sign on one area, we can talk about the beginning of the preparation for an earthquake.
"We believe that one of the process that initiated the chain of further anomalies in the atmosphere, is the ionization of the atmospheric boundary layer. And she, and subsequently the condensation of water vapor generates as much as two branches of the precursors: thermal and electromagnetic. Heat results in an increase surface temperature, air flow and reduce moisture escaping infrared radiation, which are fixed infrared sensors on satellites. These flows are measured at the upper edge of the clouds, at an altitude of 10-15 km.
There are also a number of meteorological indicators, such as the formation of a special form of clouds, which are mostly long, thin formations formed over the active faults of the cortex.
The second part is based on the precursors of the electromagnetic interaction. Formation of large aerosol particles over the area of the earthquake preparation leads to change in conductivity of the surface air. As a result, changes vertical current between the ionosphere and the earth, changing the potentials of the ionosphere. All of this can be measured by satellite methods.
For six years in orbit of the Earth was a French satellite, which recorded such phenomena. Statistics show: there is regularity, which says, with what in advance of the earthquake, these phenomena occur in the atmosphere and ionosphere.
As the Deputy Director General for Research "Russian Space Systems" Alexei Romanov, in order to move on to the prediction of earthquakes on a regular basis and operational, you must first learn how to diagnose the preparation to the phenomenon. And a huge amount of time and effort spent on the selection of the most important precursors. On this basis, it is already necessary to create information technology to reach the short-term forecasting.
"Now the attitude to the prediction of earthquakes has changed. No more claims that it is impossible to predict. Our task is to understand how it can be done in order to make the world safer, "- he stressed.
At the end of the meeting Valerio Tramutoli thanked all participants of the final meeting of the PRE-EARTHQUAKE project for their fruitful contributions and noted significance of the meeting outcomes. He stressed that the contributions of all participants will be integrated into a final report of the project which review is scheduled for the beginning of 2013.
Starts the italian project on Short term earthquake prediction and preparation
An Italian project developed in the frame of the agreement between the National Department of Civil Protection (DPC) and the National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) aims at identifying and evaluating effective procedures for short term forecasting of destructive earthquakes.
→INGV-DPC Project S3 (2012-2013)
On the potential of satellite TIR surveys for a Dynamic Assessment of (short-term) Seismic Risk: some examples from the EU-FP7 PRE-EARTHQUAKES Project
Project PRE-EARTHQUAKES - monitoring earthquake precursors: strategy and first results
Romanov Aleksey, Romanov Aleksandr
TUE1.3: Testing New Technologies for Forecast Warnings of Large Earthquake Events: The social, Economic and Humanitarian Aspects of the New Challenges Session Chair: Garry DE LA POMERAI, "Soluzion Systems" - Dubai, UAE Jointly Organised by Dimitar Ouzounov, Chapman University US & Soluzion Systems Dubai UAE
V. Tramutoli, R. Corrado, C. Filizzola, N. Genzano, M. Lisi and N. Pergola
This review paper reports the main contributions and results achieved after more than 30 years of studies on the possible relationships among space-time variation of Earth\'s thermally emitted radiation, measured by satellite sensors operating in the Thermal InfraRed (TIR) spectral range (8-14 m), and earthquake occurrence. Focus will be given on the different existing methods/models to: 1) discriminate a possible pre-seismic TIR anomaly from all the other TIR signal fluctuations; 2) correlate such anomalies with space, time and magnitude of earthquakes; 3) physically justify such a correlation.
Total cost: EUR 745 658,03
EU contribution: EUR 499 490,17
Coordinated in: Italy
Start date:2010-12-01SEMEP: Search for ElectroMagnetic Earthquake Precursors [pdf]