Lead Time of Seismo-Electromagnetic Phenomena
* bold: statistical results
Personal View on Short-term EQ Prediction (Uyeda, 2007)
DC (VAN method, according to Uyeda)
about 20 days (SES detection) / a few weeks (SES Activity) before
The Physics of Seismic Electric Signals (terrapub, 2005)
Preseismic anomalous telluric current signals observed in Kozu-shima Island, Japan (PNAS, 2012)
DC (Uyeda et al.)
1 to 19 days in most cases
Geoelectric potential changes: Possible precursors to earthquakes in Japan | pdf (PNAS, 2000)
ULF polarization (Hayakawa, Hattori and Ohta)
1 to 2 weeks
Monitoring of ULF (ultra-low-frequency) Geomagnetic Variations Associated with Earthquakes (Sensors, 2007)
ULF emission (Fraser-Smith et al.)
12 days before
Low-Frequency Magnetic Field Measurements near the Epicenter of the Ms 7.1 Loma Prieta Earthquake (GRL, 1990)
Satellite thermal anomaly (Tronin)
7-14 days before
Satellite thermal survey - A new tool for the study of seismoactive regions (Int'l Journal of Remote Sensing, 1996)
VLF/LF night time fluctuation (Hayakawa et al.)
5 to 6 days before
A statistical study on the correlation between lower ionospheric
perturbations as seen by subionospheric VLF/LF propagation
and earthquakes (JGR, 2010)
VHF radiowave scattering (Fujiwara et al)
5 days before
Atmospheric anomalies observed during earthquake occurrences (Editor's Choice: GRL, 2004)
foF2 and GPS-TEC perturbations (Liu et al)
1 to 5 days before
A statistical investigation of preearthquake ionospheric anomaly (JGR, 2006)
Pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies registered by continuous GPS TEC measurements (Annales Geophysicae, 2004)
Reduction of electron temperature (Oyama et al)
it starts 5 days before and ends 5 days after
Reduction of electron temperature in low latitude ionosphere at 600km before and after large earthquakes (JGR, 2008)
Omega VLF terminator time change (Molchanov and Hayakawa)
2 to 3 days before
Subionospheric VLF signal perturbations possibly related to earthquakes (JGR, 1998)
VLF pulse emission (Tsutsui)
1 to 2 days before
Detection of earth-origin electric pulses (GRL, 2002)
Silvery clouds: Atmospheric phenomena (witnessed by several Russian cosmonauts)
1 day before?
Two years left from the Earth (Valery V. Polyakov) | RUSSIA / MIR Voice of America 30 August 1999 (FAS)
VLF emission by satellite observation
10 hours before
Demeter pulling out all the stops (CNES, 2006)
Charged particle precipitation (Aleksandrin et al)
2 to 4 hours before
High-energy charged particle bursts in the near-Earth space as earthquake precursors (Annales Geophysicae, 2003)
Night time VLF emission decrease by satellite observation
0 to 4 hours before (Nemec, Santolik, Parrot and Berthelier)
Spacecraft Observations of Electromagnetic Perturbations Connected with Seismic Activity (GRL, 2008)
LF to HF emissions (Baba et al)
a few hours to several mitutes before?
Electromagnetic signals associated with small aftershocks of the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake (Proc Jpn Acad Ser B, 1999)
HF emissions (Maeda and Tokimasa)
40 minutes before
Decametric radiation at the time of the Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake near Kobe in 1995 (GRL, 1996)
Luminous Phenomena (Enomoto et al)
Immediately before or coseismic
Possible evidence of earthquake lightning accompanying the 1995 Kobe earthquake inferred from the Nojima fault gouge (GRL, 1998)
Other References
Earthquake Precursors with Potential for Satellite-Based Detection (CenSSIS, 2001)
Electromagnetic emissions from the ground (DEMETER)
Achievements of NASDA's Earthquake Remote Sensing Frontier Project (TAO, 2004)
Japanese Activity on Seismo Electromagnetics Publication list (2002-2006) (Edited by M. Hayakawa, 2007)
Radio Science Bulletin No. 320 (URSI, 2007)
FAQ - Earthquake Effects & Experiences (USGS)
Earthquake Lights (The Earth's Anomalous Lightforms)
[satellitechronicle.html]